Liam Lawson’s 2026 F1 Future – Will He Replace Yuki Tsunoda at Red Bull?

Liam Lawson’s Formula 1 career took a dramatic turn in 2025, with his future in the sport appearing far more secure now than it did at the start of the season.



Initially handed a coveted spot at Red Bull Racing for 2025, the 23-year-old New Zealander struggled to establish himself, leading to a mid-season demotion.



However, signs now point towards Lawson remaining in F1 next season—albeit with Racing Bulls, rather than the senior team.



A Risky Promotion That Didn’t Pay Off



Red Bull’s decision to promote Lawson to replace Sergio Perez for the 2025 campaign was met with cautious optimism.



Though he lacked the experience of his teammate Yuki Tsunoda, team boss Christian Horner was convinced Lawson offered more long-term potential.



That potential failed to materialize early in the season.



Lawson suffered back-to-back Q1 eliminations, including qualifying last twice in Shanghai.



The performance gap next to Max Verstappen was glaring, and Red Bull acted swiftly by reversing the driver swap, reinstating Tsunoda alongside Verstappen and sending Lawson back to Racing Bulls.



Return to Racing Bulls Offers Reprieve



The move back to Racing Bulls was an opportunity for Lawson to regroup.



Red Bull’s second team offered a more forgiving environment and a car that was reportedly easier to handle than the RB21.



But expectations remained high.



With his contract ending after 2025, Lawson needed to prove himself once again to remain on the grid.



Yet, even in a less intense setting, the competition didn’t ease.



His rookie teammate Isack Hadjar quickly found form, outperforming Lawson in qualifying and race finishes.



Hadjar’s Form Highlights Lawson’s Struggles



Statistically, Hadjar has been the more consistent performer throughout 2025.



He holds 21 points to Lawson’s 12, and has scored in four Grands Prix compared to Lawson’s two.



Hadjar has also made regular Q3 appearances and secured strong results—including a best finish of P6, a mark Lawson matched only recently at Silverstone.



Despite this, Racing Bulls leadership remains supportive of Lawson’s efforts.



Team principal Laurent Mekies, now also Red Bull CEO, praised the Kiwi’s behind-the-scenes work, noting his determination and steady improvement.



Lawson’s recent performances at Monaco and Silverstone indicate a potential turning point in form.



2026 Seat Likely Secured



According to a report from The New Zealand Herald , Lawson is now “increasingly likely” to stay with Racing Bulls for the 2026 season.



Citing unnamed sources, the report claims Red Bull sees Lawson as the ideal “senior driver” at the Faenza-based outfit.



In reality, Lawson already holds that position in 2025 due to his previous F1 stints.



Red Bull is reportedly keen to retain one experienced driver at Racing Bulls as F1 prepares for sweeping regulation changes in 2026, including new engines and chassis.



Lawson’s familiarity with the team, developed across three different stints, makes him a valuable asset heading into that transition.



Red Bull’s Wider Driver Puzzle



While Lawson’s future may be settled, Red Bull still faces significant uncertainty over the rest of its F1 roster.



Both Tsunoda and Hadjar are out of contract after 2025.



Tsunoda, based on current expectations, appears unlikely to remain in F1 next year, with sources indicating his chances are “almost 0%.”



This opens a spot at Red Bull Racing that Hadjar is now the leading candidate to fill, following strong endorsements from advisor Helmut Marko.



That scenario would leave Lawson at Racing Bulls in 2026, taking on a mentorship role for the next wave of Red Bull talent.



One name already being mentioned is Arvid Lindblad, currently in his rookie Formula 2 campaign.



The teenager is reportedly being groomed for an F1 debut, with Racing Bulls seen as the natural entry point.



A Pivotal Opportunity



For Lawson, 2026 represents a second chance to solidify his standing in F1.



Even if his Red Bull Racing hopes are on pause, a strong season with Racing Bulls under the new regulations could reignite his chances.



With a rookie likely by his side, Lawson will not only have to perform on track but also help guide team development during a period of major technical change.



How he embraces this role may well define his long-term F1 trajectory.
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