MyBettingEdge Gives Lando Norris Just 28% Chance of 2025 F1 Title After Hungarian GP

Following the conclusion of the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix, gambling analytics platform MyBettingEdge has released its latest projections for the Formula 1 World Championship — and the outlook for McLaren’s Lando Norris has cooled significantly.



According to the platform’s analysis of bookmaker odds, Norris now has only a 28% probability of winning the drivers’ title this season, down from figures seen earlier in the campaign.



The sharp shift in probability reflects both recent on-track results and changes in the betting markets, which MyBettingEdge monitors to produce its forecasts.



Market Reaction to Budapest Result



The Hungarian Grand Prix proved to be a pivotal moment in the title fight. Norris, who has been locked in a season-long battle with teammate Oscar Piastri and reigning champion Max Verstappen, could only manage a podium finish after starting on the front row.



While the result added valuable points to his tally, it was not enough to close the gap on Piastri, who took victory in Budapest and extended his lead in the standings.



Bookmakers adjusted their outright markets accordingly, with Norris drifting in the odds compared to his rivals. MyBettingEdge’s proprietary model, which converts these odds into implied probabilities, shows the Briton now trailing in the statistical race for the championship.



Piastri Pulls Ahead in the Projections



The biggest beneficiary of the Hungarian GP was Piastri, whose win further solidified his position as the bookmakers’ favourite. His championship probability surged in MyBettingEdge’s model, putting him well clear of Norris and Verstappen.



Norris’s 28% figure now leaves him in a distant second place in the probability charts, with Verstappen close behind. This suggests that, from a betting perspective, the title battle may be slipping from a three-way contest towards a two-driver race.



The Numbers Behind the Forecast



MyBettingEdge’s approach involves aggregating odds from a range of leading bookmakers, removing the built-in margin (or “overround”), and recalculating fair probabilities for each driver.



The methodology aims to strip away bookmaker bias and present a clearer picture of the market’s consensus. In this case, the model’s output indicates that the betting public — and the layers setting the odds — now see Norris as having less than a one-in-three shot at the title.



This represents a notable downturn from the early summer, when the same model had Norris’s chances hovering above 40% after a run of strong results.



The Road Ahead



Despite the drop to 28%, Norris’s championship hopes are far from over. With several high-downforce tracks still to come, and McLaren’s MCL39 proving competitive across a range of circuits, there is still an opportunity for him to turn the tide.



Key rounds in Belgium, Italy, and Singapore could be decisive, especially if Piastri encounters reliability issues or strategic missteps.



However, from a market perspective, Norris now faces the dual challenge of outperforming his teammate on track while also overcoming the growing consensus among bettors that the 2025 title may already be leaning Piastri’s way.



For fans and punters alike, the next few races will reveal whether Norris can defy the odds — quite literally — and reignite his championship bid.
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